price target 7.50, page-107

His analysis was incorrect though. The price target was a good guess though, yeah. However it honestly was pure luck and therefore undeserving of the acknowledgement someone should get if the reasons for their prediction mirrored the reasons that the price eventually met up with said prediction in the future.

The issue I see in this thread is that he made a "calculated" prediction based off of incorrectly organised/gathered information.

He picked a current (at the time of his thread creation) stock price. Then used out of date financial metrics to give an incorrect annualized PE ratio.

The PE ratio at the time when he published this thread was in fact 13.5 and not 40 like he claims. Annualized revenue was clearly stated to be $480 million in the quarterly report.

Not to mention there was literally no word of more regulation that we didn't already know about which had any effect on the share price.

He said nothing of bond yields, nothing of their the US roadshow or US listing. I'm not even saying someone should be able to predict these things, but if they want credit for a well informed guess which would add to their intellectual reputation, then they'd have to do better than what this guy did haha.

It's like yeah people made money guessing the 2008 GFC and won on a fluke. But majority of them didn't make the guess in such a way that Michael Burry did and actually gave the reasons how it would happen before it did.