Price target (long-term) - $0.388 based on 307 kt

DYOR. Make your own decisions.
The estimates below are based on my own analysis and assumptions based on what we know about the project. A long-term estimate is provided based on my own calculations. This assumes management successfully converts Letters of Intent to Binding Offtakes and management have success in achieving permits and approvals to implement the project. Funding for project is not yet locked in.
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I have calculated a quick long-term (18 to 30 month price target) for 307 kt of dry-processed Ore.

New long-term (18 to 30 month) price target is $0.388 based on assumptions below.

We wait for the scoping study to confirm key parameters for the project including CAPEX and OPEX.

Assumptions as follows:

• 307 kt of dry-processed ore as per tally of Offtake Letters of Intent ( https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20190729/pdf/446yslll0jsbtz.pdf )
• Other assumptions based on https://hotcopper.com.au/posts/39704383/single
  • Margin AUD $200 per tonne
  • CAPEX at $10M for two modules ( wait for scoping study to confirm )
• Accumulated losses AUD $35.3M reduce the tax bill in the first year
• A P/E of 20.0 is used given the company has a long-term growth strategy to add wet-processed products and their may be a future HPA JV of some form.

Result is free cash flow AUD $40M for ADN's 75% share ( based on EBITDA $57.9M for ADN's 75% share after mineral royalties and cash costs )