Price targets, page-4

No info on when these are expected.  Allot different if in a year or several years out.   No info on WHY so we can tract how they are doing vs the reasons for estimate.   These numbers are from reports.   In the report somewhere it always say "Estimates"  You have to read report and understand then decide if you agree.  Some  of your links do not work

 

 

· CLSA - $4.10 (https://www.fnarena.com/index.php/2018/09/13/rudis-view-lynas-noni-b-and-citadel-group/)

 

Nice price only one line no timeframe or reason why.   Refers to post on Friday but I cannot find it quickly.

 

· USB - $3.30 (https://www.fnarena.com/index.php/2018/09/13/rudis-view-lynas-noni-b-and-citadel-group/)

Link is same as the first!!!   And I know from experience if  you are not a member you cannot access USB.

· Saxo Bank - $3.00 (https://www.home.saxo/insights/content-hub/articles/2018/09/20/buy-lynas-as-rare-earths-are-reborn)

This is a good article it is thoughtout.   I have a major problem with one part of her logic.    She is impressed by the gains In ASP and kind of straights lines them for her conclusion.   For last 3 Qs the percentage of La and Ce to NdPr has dropped.  Raising ASP in spite of falling prices.   Each Q  more la and Ce has gone to inventory than last.  AL in Q1 CC clearly said Lynas will sell (a lot more) More Ce and La and maybe 400KT less NdPR All depends on charging of SX line for Nd and Pr separation,   regulatory issues are behind them.   So if ASP drops Q2 what does that do to Eleonore’s conclusions?  She does not seem to be aware of how prices have fallen since March ’18.

 

· Fosters - $2.64 (http://www.fostock.com.au/LiteratureRetrieve.aspx?ID=245247)

 

Fosters has always been high  his opening statement is “robustcash generation:”  Q1 was less than Q4 if you take out JARE payment made in Q4.    Overall this is one of the best  Fosters reports I have seen and the reduced both their NdPR price forecast and earnings forecast but I think they are both high. . short term.  Posible a year from now.  

 

·  Newgate Capital Partners - $4.10 https://www.newgatecap.com/wordpres.../10/Newgate-Capital-Lynas-Corporation-LYC.pdf)ut   This is over a year old!  Prices are pre split!   The price estimate was for October 2018 you multiplied   0.41 to get 4.10.   How did they do on their estimate?    I do not see a single price over $2.00 for all OCT 2018.   The high for year was under $3.00.  There NdPr price,  “NdPr price range of $US70-$US100k per tonne”  (see conclusions on next to last page of report.)  Current price $38.00  and falling.   How can you post anything that is this far off as being credible?    Did you study the  report?   

I do not saythis to be down on Lynas!!!!

I say all ofthis because in over 50 years of investing I am very negative on Analyst ingeneral.  If I had believed analyst Tesla would be $500 +.  GE would be $40 not $8.00   Ford would be mid $20.   Not $9.00.   They  are part of investment and or banking companies.   No company is going to use the services of a firm that gives less than highly positive review. The pressure for very positive reviews is extreme.    Second many are just Lazy and take info that is spoon fed to them.   This is not all their fault.  If they dug hard they might come up with info not inline with company view, their firm would not publish it.  Why bother if it will only be rejected. 

 

I do read Analysis.  I have bought on their recommendations.  They do occasionally point out some really good info.   If after working hard to confirm what they are saying, and I like the company,  I will buy.  Never will I just look at a future stock price and take it.  In last 10 years I cannot rember a low estimate.  How often do you ever see sell recommendations?