It all depends how much of the total EPP population they can capture. 5,000 - 10,000 patients worldwide. What percentage of those would be in countries with sufficient health insurance (or public system) that would cover the ~$130K price tag? That's the big unknown.
The addressable market is in the range of $1B per annum, if they can capture 25% of that, then you're looking at $250M of annual revenues, profit around $150-200M. A generous P/E of 20x (due to potential growth in patients and alternative uses such as vitiglio) would put it at a price range of $61-82.
But if they can capture 50%, it could be more than double that. Only 10% and it should be under $30.
Price targets, page-3
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$15.62 |
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| Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
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