I agree with you there Humphrey -this estimate is conservative!
I'm in the middle of what may be my final of the larger OGX posts (before I get on with my own innovating), but I can't help myself here when we are discussing price and P/E ratios.
The market isn't so interested in a current P/E ratio ...but rather the next P/E ratio and the ones after that (which is lucky for us because we currently don't have a positve P/E ratio.
That's what makes us such a tantalising stock at the moment ...because the results of big Harry may demonstrate that the future earnings is likely to be massive.
Why do we need to worry whether a P/E of 8 (demonstrating a MC of $800 mil is too high, when a P/E of 4 = $400 mil or 3.5 times out current shareprice.
...and this is only reflecting Cascavel.
The market will also reflect that the gold-stream payments are out of the ordinary and not a permanent cost -but it will give them a price in the scheme of things.
When our other projects start to kick in (Sertao with a JORC'd resource on minimal drill holes for example), Antena, Elesio, Cuca, Tintero, etc ...then things will start to get interesting.
Lets be conservative and work on a PE ratio of 6 ...but based on next years likely earnings. Now that's more meaningful -any takers to try to wrap their head around that? You will be rewarded!
Now, punters ...if you are the type of investor who requires forecasts and guidance and dividends and all that crap ...then you are at the wrong end of the market here. Go the the end of the hall, turn left and look for the sign that says "boring end of the market enter here". Otherwise sit down, shut up and hang on for what may be the ride of you life!
Management have got it sorted. Re-read the announcement today they are not interested in fat-cat pay cheques and selling out the company for a lambo and some drinking silver. They are here to get value for the shareholders -why? Because they are shareholders ...and it's only going to get worse as they meet their milestones (I mean better ).
Some of you guys want to sell out because you can't wait a few weeks? Good luck with that plan.
I'm not happy that it appears that some sectors of the market knew about the announcement just prior to it's release -bit I'm not necessarily blaming OGX here. I shall make inquires (never mind ...they read any posts from me and Esh anyway).
Cheers,
SJB
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