... pre cursored with an apology for the length of the post..
... the Sunday sermon ... a time to reflect
... It is an interesting analysis when you look back at where Prima is today... and the forecasts outlined just one year ago in the Investment Thesis presented by National Securities (May 10, 2010)
... but remembering that National Securities are the Market Maker for Prima Biomed in the US, and do have a disclosed vested interest in a number of areas...
... The contents may be nothing new ...but perhaps a timely reminder and a positive reaffirmation for where we are going... and bit of interesting info for the newcomers to PRR
... we can feel some degree of comfort in the fact that on reading tis 'report' many of the issues and questions that are being raised in many today's discussions....were in fact outlined quite clearly a year ago
the relavent excerpts of interest are as follows... tagged with some running commentary ______________________________________________________________
" We are initiating coverage of Prima BioMed with a Buy rating. We see the companys CVac immunotherapy platform as a potential game changer in the treatment of mucin-1 over-expressing tumor
Positive results of these trials would set-up Prima BioMed to capture significant share of the multi-billion dollar cancer maintenance treatment market. "
... nothing new... but the exciting preamble ______________________________________________________________
" By mid-2011... Dendreon could achieve U.S. revenues of about $2 billion.
Prima BioMeds approach in the development of CVac is similar to Dendreons approach for Provenge"
...."Also, like Provenge, CVac is being tested in patients in remission, where it would target minimal residual disease, rather than advanced disease, giving the immune system a better shot at working. This encourages us to believe CVac will have similar success to Provenge and perhaps become much bigger"
... an there it is stated... perhaps become much bigger than Provenge ______________________________________________________________
" Financials: Prima BioMed currently has approximately 18 months of cash based on our assumptions on how the burn rate may change, (at the current burn rate the company has almost 3 years of cash). We expect a ramp up in R&D associated spending to begin as Cvac moves into a pivotal program.
We estimate the company will have approximately AUD $13.5 million in cash. Prima also has a convertible loan facility that brings in AUD $700,000 per month (converts at 10% discount to 5 day VWAP ), until July 2012. This facility initially is a loan however it converts to common stock (at a modest discount to trading price). '
... and as we now know , this convertible loan facility from Springtree has since been terminated... prematurely ( not July 2012 )... and with no more issuing of common stock to Springtree ... their is no additional dilution of overall shareholder value ______________________________________________________________
" In our model we assume Prima will raise additional capital (on good phase II Proof of concept data). The proceeds would then be used to expand the clinical program and to invest in additional manufacturing capacity. "
... this is the really interesting bit from the above paragraph... and perhaps unnoticed by many...
"Prima will raise additional capital (on good phase II Proof of concept data).
... sounds like some form of cap raising has always been on the cards for around right now... announced a year ago ________________________________________________
" Prima BioMed is highly undervalued as the market fails to appreciate the potential of CVac, an autologous dendritic cell-based cancer immunotherapeutic product based on the same technology as Dendreons Provenge "
... "highly undervalued " ..yeah yeah ... tell us something that we don't already know ____________________________________________________________
" The Phase 2a trial included only advanced-stage, refractory patients who generally have compromised immune systems that are not very responsive to immunotherapy. Future CVac trials will investigate efficacy in patients who have received less prior chemotherapy. Theoretically, these patients, with intact immune systems should derive maximum benefit from CVac. "
... in other words... cVac is working in advanced stage cancer patients .. who were the only candidates we were allowed to trial cVac on.. just wait until you see the effects of cVac on early stage cancer patients... ______________________________________________________________
" In addition, CVac is directed toward the mucin-1 antigen and may target other cancers that over-express mucin-1 (ovarian, breast, lung, colon, pancreatic). The potential market for the full range of mucin-1 targeting therapies, if successful, would likely be several time larger than the market for Provenge "
... another reminder ... " if successful, would likely be several time larger than the market for Provenge. " ______________________________________________________________
"As CVac advances through clinical development, the Company will likely gain greater visibility among investors. With success, the upside could be enormous:"
.... now that's gotta be exciting... an upside quoted as ' enormous' ______________________________________________________________
Success in ovarian cancer would also open the door to other indications. Furthermore, Big Pharma companies have a relatively small presence in the area of immunotherapy to date, but Dendreons success is likely to make these companies more interested "
.... and I reckon most would agree that there is every possibility that there are several big Pharmas having a little 'sniff' at Prima right now... and as someone posted previously... much bigger fish than DNDN __________________________________________________
... with what we are told the Nasdaq 'thingy' is happening soon
... coupled with what we believe to be a synchronised announcement on listing of Prima Biomed PBMD
... it WILL be a most interesting ... and exciting ride in the short term for the PRR faithful .. with the long term prospects just looking better and better
PRR.. the Lifechanger
PRR Price at posting:
28.8¢ Sentiment: LT Buy Disclosure: Held
(20min delay)