PRL Technical & SP forecast, page-2

Doesn’t really address your key questions but I think we can safely assume a huge dilution in order to fund our contribution to the JV if it gets across the line. I’d think anything up to 30% of our 50% “contribution” to the JV will have to be “funded” by a partner organisation coming in as a cornerstone or majority PRL holder. PRL has very little tangible assets it can raise debt against so an equity partner of substance will very much be on the cards imo if we succeed in maintaining the 50/50 upstream + downstream split with Total. Total will naturally need to be ok with whoever this entity is.

I also think that wrapped up in all of this will be a near term consolidation - the size of which will be determined by (a) how big the sustained bounce/SP re-rate (if any) is as a result of a successfully concluded shareholders agreement with Total, plus (b) what indicative commitments PRL might already have obtained from Govt and “green” fundies to secure infrastructure capital or extremely favourable “social bonds” style debt financing, plus (c) the balance of new equity that is still going to be required in the near term to fund PRL’s assumed 50% contribution to a multi billion dollar project. In my opinion this will be 1:10 minimum consolidation, to bring the number of fully diluted shares on issue to a much more manageable starting point of ~200m shares. Cap raises or equity placement(s) to then follow.

All this said, I would not be surprised to see PRL’s actual share of the final project drop - one way or another - to the <25% range and/or PRL (as we know it today) completed subsumed into another entity that has the cash to match Total. This is, after all, what DF does well - setting companies up for acquisition. I would be quite surprised if in a couple of years I find myself still a shareholder in the HyEnergy project via PRL as we know it now. We should of course expect to receive a fairly good buyout offer on a cash or scrip-for-scrip basis.

Just my thoughts anyhow. We are unlikely to get the full story from PRL anytime soon regardless of what they release (on... Thursday?), so we might as well theorise here while reading media & government reports that contain more detail than the company seemingly offers us shareholders upfront.