Using the probabilities of success of individual wells from the Cannacord report I did a few probability calculations using Excel.
Here are a few results:
There is a 0.0000016335% chance that all wells will be successful.
There is 4% chance that no wells will be successful.
There is 96% chance that at least 1 well will be successful.
There is 51% chance that 3 or more wells will be successful.
Read more here:
http://www.sharescene.com/index.php?showtopic=379
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