IVZ 1.43% 6.9¢ invictus energy ltd

Probability of failure

  1. 18,310 Posts.
    lightbulb Created with Sketch. 403
    Hey guys

    wondering if any mathematical minded types can crunch the numbers

    General consensus is a success rate of less than 10%

    Amount to be lost approx 80-90%

    Upside guess 100% success rate first well $2 second well $4

    Current valuation approx 200 mill

    At this current valuation is ivz worth the risk?

    Need to take into account sovereign risk and other issues such as blowing out drilling costs etc

    Cheers
 
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