probability of takeover increasing, page-2

NUF up yet again so far today this time by 3.7%. Vols are solid and we now have seen 14 days of price gains since talks regarding potential TO began.
I see NUF like this. IF the TO occurs it will be at a 30-35% premium to price PRIOR to talks starting or a 10+% premium to the $11.50 paid by institutions in the capital raising about 2 months ago. This equates to a TO price of 12.50-13.00. Current SP $11.65. My query is this: Why even consider buying NUF unless you believe the TO to have a HIGH PROBABILITY OF SUCCESS?? One thing is certain. If TO talks fail this SP will drop $1.50+ in a single session. Nobody knows this better than major-holder/CEO Rathdown. Hence, he will do every reasonable thing ensure TO succeeds. So buyers can (hopefully/reasonably) expect SP to gain another $1.00 from now. So why is SP slowly creeping-up? If you believe SP will occur i would still buy. If you are not convinced then sell/avoid. But what i can't fathom is why folk are buying in dribs and drabs as SP rises steadily each day AND still hope to make a motsa?!? I mean this could(no guarantees) be 12.10 within 5-6 days with talks still unresolved. that means potential gain is half what it is compared with buying at 11.60. So if you want in... make haste is my suggestion. Otherwise future gain will not be worth risk of TO failing.