probability of takeover increasing, page-4

well rob43... u are backing yrself. i mean what elsecan one do? Another consideration is that the longer talks continue... the more likely IMO it is that the TO will go-ahead. I mean why would Chinese continue with their due-diligence and negotiations if they discover NUF is not the money-maker they hope it is. Afterall, we are talking about a TO worth 2.7Billion. hardly worth spending that on a dud.

Also worth noting that since talks began their has been no leakage of news. Zilch. If news broke (either-way) prior to an official announcement from company... then Rathbone can kiss his arse goodbye. Instos paid $11.50 after speaking with Rathbone only for him to declare a profit-downgrade 3 weeks later. If somehow NUF ship starts leaking and some can gain whilst others are stranded.... you can guarantee every fund that bought in will be ringing ASIC. So when news breaks it is likely to be sudden. Too damn late then to climb aboard. 90+% of profit will be gone.

Hence, better to avoid/sell if you doubt NUF can pull this off. me? i am holding as i still reckon the probability of this TO suceeding is high. NUF is cheap and strategic.... exactly what a cashd-up Chinese outfit likes. But if she hits 12.50 next week and still no announcement... i'll probably bail. I'll take a $3.25 gain and that is plenty. Some posters reckon 15.00 is possible. Who knows??Certainly not me.