"what was the probability (of TOL issuance) a month ago? and...

"what was the probability (of TOL issuance) a month ago? and what is the probability now?"

Consider the recent statements in the last month made by the minister that "the LAMP is safe" and "protestors have not considered the facts and were not well informed" and the statements by the PSC that "the LAMP is safe" and the statements by various international experts who were invited to the international rare earths conference in early may and toured the LAMP and then pronounced "the LAMP is safe", and also based on the pro-business statements by Ongkili that "LAMP will promote development of downstream industries" and "Malaysia is a leader in promoting foreign direct investment".

The Malaysian government is already convinced of the economic value of operating LAMP, of the political necessity that Malaysia must follow through with its promises when it invites a foreign company to spend $800 billion to build a plant to then allow them to operate the business for 12 years with the promised tax holiday, that Malaysian goals must remain very pro-business towards foreign investment, that their actions regarding Lynas are being scrutinized and must reflect this probusiness stance, and that the scientific validity of the LAMP's safety has recently been verified by outside experts and publically affirmed by Ongkili himself and reiterated through recent news releases.

So the MEDIUM TERM ISSUANCE OF THE TOL has an EVEN HIGHER PROBABILITY than before the events of the last 2 months, considering all of the above lines of evidence.

But the SHORT TERM TIMING OF THE TOL ISSUANCE remains in the hands of the political consideration for the best sequence of events for the upcoming elections, and with an attempt to appear slow and deliberate in the government's thorough investigation and documentation process, confirmed by as many experts as possible before the government announces final approval.

I don't think the government would have engaged such a long drawn out process and hinted in public statements about the LAMP's safety and that opposition parties should visit the LAMP to be reassured about its safety, unless they truly believed the LAMP should be approved.

If there were major concerns then Ongkili and AELB would be making entirely opposite public statements because in that case they could appear more sympathetic to the public's safety interest if they said, "we are considering not allowing this for your own safety". That would instantly help the BN party to steal votes from the greenies currently supporting the opposition party for the upcoming election. So that isn't what's happening.

The probability of TOL issuance has DEFINITELY gone up, but the perception of uncertainty as to WHEN it gets issued has also increased, since no one thought it would take 5 months from last January when they first announced the TOL was granted but couldn't be issued until certain conditions were met.