You double your chances of winning the $100 by choosing to swap...

  1. 490 Posts.
    You double your chances of winning the $100 by choosing to swap the box you originally picked for the box remaining after an empty box has been removed. My reasoning is:

    If your policy is not to swap boxes, then your probability of winning is 1 in 3, since you are choosing randomly from three boxes and only one box has the $100.

    If, on the other hand, your policy is to swap boxes, then you will end up winning whenever your original pick is an empty box and the probability of that happening is 2 in 3.
 
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