turbiditic nothing has changed apart from the fact I now know the money is in one of two boxes, of which I have one, so I have 50% chance of having selected the right one.
Geffa, that's kinda like the way the law of averages works. Throw a penny in the air 100 times and it should land either way approximately 50 times. However, lets say it has lander 95 times heads. Does this mean the odds are better it landing tails the next throw?
According to mathematicians...no. The next throw becomes random again, the next 100 throws should show around 50 heads, 50 tails. So the odds with the box remain the same, it has 50% chance of being in either remaining box. Your argument could also be related to the remaining empty box... ie what chances did it have of being the only other box left after removing 98 of them.
In my mind...the same as the one you chose, but I'm usually wrong.
