The share price tumble began on May 9th, since then this chart...

The share price tumble began on May 9th, since then this chart shows NdPr dropping only from at best 322 to 315. I think its safe to presume the political environment is the catalyst here. Not that that chart isn't a bit scary in its own right.

Since March 9th the SP moved from around $2.30 to $2.60 (prior to the spike to $2.96), which is inverse to this chart. But I think the simple reason for that is perhaps to do with the Lynas price for NdPr not exactly following the China price and also there is that 60 day lag in sales to deliver. Not that its a great comfort for the upcoming quarter but revenues today are being generated from sales when the price was around the CNY350/tonne mark.

The upramping of production from the shutdown inspections will have also driven the price as I'd expect record production this quarter. Given the political instability and the softening of NdPr prices I think the return to $2.80+ could take a bit longer than the week or so its taken to fall. Still got fingers crossed for $3.00+ in the middle of July but less sure about it now.