am just contemplating outlook for Orbost. Obvious to all that COE will benefit immensely if Orbost can be ramped-up to nameplate and beyond, in these times of high priced domestic gas.
So, from memory, in presentations COE stated that Orbost production was all about establishing a level where Orbost could consistently produce at the highest level, without clogging up.
COE believed that Orbost could produce around 58tjd for about 4-5 days, then shut down one absorber for 3 days for cleaning.
Also, COE stated that the solids removal package would not be commissioned until about March next year.
Ergo, that says to me that production program will remain similar until SRP is installed.
Also I recall COE said that "this week" production would be increased into "60's"?
Thus for period 1 July to 1 Sept incl, average daily rate has been 49tjd (48.997tjd)
For the period 1 August to 31 August average rate is 49.3tjd.
On the assumption now that process cleaning is consistent now (58tjd for 4-5 days, then a clean for 2-3 days), we can assume that production for rest of calendar year will be an average of 49tjd.
So for 1st Half fin year 2023 (i July - 31 Dec 2022), prod of 49tjd will be about 9,016tj or 9pPJ.
Average Realised Gas Price for COE in Q4 2022, was $10.54gj.
So revenue for Orbost for this half yr should be at least $90m. or $180m for a full yr.
That's on a purchase price of around $300m.
Pick a number for gas prices.
Pick a number for production costs and admin - but the numbers still look pretty good imho.
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