I've kept a keen eye on the buying & selling trends over the last few months. What has been evident is some of the big buy & sell orders that go through. We know Oppenheimer have ben selling down since the end of Feb, and I'd assume they are completely out now or not far from it. Then we had Merrill Lynch converting their notes, approx 30m in the last 3 weeks. I also assume they are responsible for some of the big sell orders of late.
Despite this selling there has also been big buy orders going through and a lot of accumulation to soak up the institutions cashing in, note Oppenheimer started selling most of their Aussie stocks not just Nido.
Prior to Tindalo, most people would agree Nido was undervalued based on Galoc alone, mainly because of the overhang. Although there was only 20 minutes of trading post announcement yesterday (including the closing auction), all of the trades that went through were only small. Obviously the big buyers will step back in such circumstances and wait for a base/bottom, the big sellers (if still around) will wait for the panic to subside to get a better price. The accumulators would have been in the buy depth doing very nicely.
Was the news that bad? I like most investors was disappointed, but lets face it, the well isn't a duster, they have production equipment problems and probably more water than they expected. The experts are in transit to the rig, it will be sorted, we may not be doing 16,000 bopd, but even 10,000 bopd (which everyone would have been happy with 4 weeks ago) will double our net net production.
If Warren Buffet was an investor in this stock, I wonder what he would be doing at the moment?
NDO Price at posting:
15.5¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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