Lets try and look at what Antares true net production numbers are.
Existing Southern Star Wells - 315 boed = May Average - likely to have declined since then to under 290 boed.
Harrison 2 Well awaiting re-completion in B sand
Harrison 3 Well online - 100 boed
Others @ Southern Star
Lonestar = between 37.5 & 50 boed
Cottonwood = between 37.5 & 50 boed (when fully online)
Smith 1 = between 75 & 100 boed (when fully online)
Ray 3 = between 75 & 100 boed (when fully online)
Smith 2 = between 75 & 100 boed (when fully online)
Ray 3 & Smith 2 not fully online until mid sept earliest
Big Star
Stuart 12-1 = between 70 & 90 boed (when fully online)
Esmond 20 = between 70 & 90 boed (when fully online)
Cline 46 = between 70 & 90 boed (when fully online)
Simmons 27-2 = between 55 & 78 boed (when fully online)
***These wells will reduce from 90% to 75% after payout so production numbers at that time will need to be adjusted accordingly *** Esmond not fully online until mid Sept, Cline & Simmons not fully online until Oct.
Northern Star
Newborough 1 = between 75 & 100 boed (when fully online)
Cozart = Drilling
Other = To be drilled
*** Provided Newborough is fixed properly
Therefore at the moment production is likely to be 650 boed Max. By the time some of these wells come online others will already be in decline.
Provided they get all these wells online at the sort of production rates shown above they should by the middle of October be producing around the 1100 boed mark.
However what will the price of oil & gas be then? how much money will be left in the bank to continue the drilling program on the scale that is needed??
Then there is the settlement regarding the Southern Star to take into account which was meant to have been on 5th August, but as yet no news for shareholders.
LOTM
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