Yes, AUS growth rate is declining, however as with any successful new business, it is very easy to grow in the beginning but as the company itself becomes bigger & bigger it gets harder & harder to grow at the same rates. As an investor it is the magnitude of the growth in dollar terms that is important and not the percentage % growth itself.
For example, if the US business had a $500k revenue, then a 100% growth in a subsequent year will net $1 million. However in a few years time if Nearmap's US business generates $20 million then even at 50% growth (to $ 30 million) in the subsequent year, this will equate to an actual dollar growth of $10 million. In this case, a smaller % growth for a bigger Nearmap is much better than a big % growth for a smaller Nearmap. After all isn't profitability measured in $ and not % ? So as long as the $ are growing I wouldn't worry too much about the % growth.
Also, in regards to margins being squeezed, SFI being a NEWER & SMALLER player entering the market it is likely they will constantly observer & set their prices below those offered by Nearmap or it will be game over for SFI immediately. The true is, smaller players do not dictate the pricing of larger players (or have very limited ability), when in reality the opposite is true (ie. a bigger player with deeper pockets can strategically squeeze out smaller players).
For example, when Aldi entered into the Australian market back in 2001, both Coles & Woolworths did not do anything to their pricing to compete for customers, it is only after a decade of growth in Australia that Aldi had proven it can survive and pose a threat to Coles & Woolies. Once Aldi grew big enough to challenge Coles & Woolies, both dominant players had to respond by restructuring their prices & services.
But unlike Aldi, SFI do not have a sustainable stream of revenue from a parent company to tough out the 'catch up game' for years to come in Australia. Although EagleView has given SFI a lifeline in Australia to currently compete, when EagleView's market share & margins are themselves being as you say 'squeezed' in the US by Nearmap (assuming for a second it is indeed possible for a smaller player to put pressure on profit margins of a bigger player), then does anyone honestly think EagleView will continue to be SFI's sugar daddy or even care whether SFI can win the AUS market catchup game?
NEA Price at posting:
74.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
