Ok I'm not a financial maths wizard so someone might want to double check my work here.....but:
Post consolidation shares on issue 122,633,350 2012 FY profit = $8,510,000
They flagged in September an anticipated profit up lift of 41% to 48% stating this was the uplift in new rigs and was a reasonably proxy for the likely impact on profit. Today they announce they are well on track with the rig expansion which will be at the upper end of the range indicated in September ie close to 48% than 41%
Lets say they get 45% so profit rises to $12.3m or an earning per share of 0.10c per share.
On current share price thats a Forward PE estimate of 3.65
Now the sector average PE is 9.26
So if Hughes on future earnings was to get to a PE say of 6 - still well below the average then if this level of earnings is realised the share price would need to be trading at 60c even at 80c (more than a 100% increase) the PE on the forecasted profit would be 8.0 - under the industry average and well under the Australian market average of 12 ish.
If they can achieve this level of anticipated profit, and suggest further growth is likely for 2014 then to me we could have a $1+ share this year.
Dazzler
HDX Price at posting:
36.5¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
