LYC lynas rare earths limited

1.20%

$9.07

Re the price to asset ratio - I'd like to remind that the...

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sbondar

1,013 Posts.

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12/12/23

10:48

Post #: 71399938
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Originally posted by ContraryJ: ↑

Market yes the market will grow. you are correct but for the last 18 months it has been contracting. I t will probably only contract a little more but I think it will be at least 18 months longer before it rebounds strongly. No one has answered this question yet. Why are you holding now. There is a chance the SP could go up shortly but it is very tinny. The chance of it going down a $ or two is large. Why not sell and buy back in at a lower price. Is a lower price guaranteed? Absolutely not. The overwhelming odd are in favor of it just like when I told you to sell a dozen years ago at 24 and you held all the way down to sub AU $1.00 Gor you as an American this was worse since when Lynas was at 24 the exchange rate was over 1. today it is 0.66 Knocking another 35% % off your gains.

Assets do you do any research before you talk? Current book value of Lynas is 2,163M See pg 58 of AR. Current market cap at a SP at a SP of 6.32 is 5,907 M. So the stock price right now is 2.7 times its assets. Normal for rapidly growing companies is 1.5 to 2. But Lyna Revenue and profits are declining rapidly Do you think it deserves to be on high side of this. And yes the 900M of cash is included but that has shrunk a lot in the last few Qs. Only stock sales which dilute you has kept it up.

Australia yes it is a nice country doubt I will visit again. Even in business class it just takes too long. But what does that have to do with SP..

Here are a few charts all from data put out by Lynas that you should consider before you decide to hold.
For H2 profits I subtract SAR from AR just makes it easer to understand.

notice how much higher the cash is with stock sales and JARE loan forgiveness than when you look at just operations. You decide which is important to you. Slope is not what you would hope for
KT
Production AL says 10.5 KT in Cal. 2024 . Can you find one thing she has said about dates, costs, or volumes that has ever been met. Go read the 2019 project plan starting with page 1 total cost of all projects Au500M paid for from operating cash flow. and find anything that came within 85% ~ 115% of what they said. KAL alone is now up to 750M and under capacity. Texas is over 3 years late on a 2.5 year schedule. They did Great in Q4 and made NEXT rates finally. If they held it into Q1 it would have been good news, they could not which indicates heroics, that rate was not a true rate. It is starting to look like they can achieve original name plate reliably, maybe,

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Re the price to asset ratio - I'd like to remind that the cyclical companies like miners look the most overpriced in relative valuation at the bottom of the cycles when they are actually a very good buy. Not suggesting anything about Lynas, but the RE prices do look like they are hitting the bottom.

Last edited by sbondar: 12/12/23

LYC Price at posting: $6.13 Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
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(20min delay)
Last $9.07		Change -0.110(1.20%)		Mkt cap ! $8.484B

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
$9.21	$9.30	$9.03	$23.21M	2.549M

Buyers (Bids)

No.	Vol.	Price($)
1	5182	$9.06

Sellers (Offers)

Price($)	Vol.	No.
$9.09	12000	2

View Market Depth

No.	Vol.	Price($)
1	5182	9.060
2	1600	9.040
4	13255	9.030
3	3547	9.020
5	23138	9.010

Price($)	Vol.	No.
9.090	12000	2
9.110	3527	3
9.120	8899	2
9.130	11630	1
9.140	11630	1

Last trade - 16.11pm 25/06/2025 (20 minute delay)

LYC (ASX) Chart

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