Let have a closer look at the two companies offered up as a comparison in today's Investor update, as they provide some compelling examples of where AMX may be headed in the fullness of time:
Centerra Gold:
Kumtor Project, Kyrgyz Republic (their main project)
- Current Milling method - CIL->SAGmill->Albion method (Float regrind + Isamil etc) same as AMX once oxide are depleted (many years)
- Mixed ore types - like amx , some oxide , some fine grained transition/fresh etc..... very simlular to AMX at a cursory glance, however Centerra have depleted their oxide reserves now, but still highly profitable.
- Recoveries - 85-92% same as AMX for LOM projections
- Cash costs - $482 reported (would be much higher in reality I would think, seems very low )
- Average grade ~2g/t
- Market cap - $2.2billion. (they only have one other small project of 50k-oz/yr)
______________________________________
Centamin Mining
Sukari Gold Mine , Egypt:
- Current Milling method - Unsure on this , but they report finegrained sulphides associated with pyrite, like amx' sulphides(fresh rock) so likely to be simluar to above with a float regrind curcuit and possible albion or bio-oxidisation treatment ....
- Mixed ore types - again like amx
- Recoveries - 85%
- Cash costs - $556 reported
- Average grade 1.8g/t
- Market cap - ~$1billion (They only have one producing mine , in troubled old Egypt, very simular to what amx is propossing with 150-200k/yr production)
____________________________________________________________
Conclusions based on these examples:
1. You can have a low cost , high margin gold mine using the methods propossed by AMX , WHEN they need to use it (down the road once oxides depleted). Even MORE profitable in the early years for AMX , when digging up the cheap shallow oxide and transitional ores at Konks + ????. Free cash flow will be what ? mine payback in how many years??
2. The average grade does not need to be any higher than amx's to achieve profitable margins when you have the SCALE and its a shallow standard open pit operation (underground in future ??).
3. AMX has not only simular ore types and grade , but also simular scale , size and prospectivity it seems.. [Read more about Centamin and Centerra and how they have added additional ounces over the years, you can infer some interesting things about AMX's discovery rate , land package , quantity of target etc...]But I'll let you guys do that....
4. AMX's market is set to balloon over the next few years into production if these co's are any indicator . IMO even if the POG was to fall as low as $1200-1400/oz (not likely), the dismal sub $100mill market cap will look very very cheap today.
If gold stabilizes in the $1600-1800/oz range for the next few years, the future looks very bright indeed. $2000+ gold ? , don't need it , but would be a whole new ballgame for businesses like AMX.
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