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07/12/17
11:12
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Originally posted by moorookamick
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Let's have a look at Project F alone and let's disregard any added value of Amaam North or Amaam for the purpose of the exercise.
IMO, it's a useful exercise to simplify the forward fundamentals of the company and the share price implications
Project F as a stand alone project with production/revenue & costs are as per 2018 with no wash plant.
Market Cap:.................. $82.8 mil
# of Shares......................1.8 billion
SP.....................................4.6c
2017 Shipping season average price per ton FOB= $99 AUD.* (170K ton for $16.822 mil AUD revenue)
Resource:.........................16.1 mil ton
Sales P/A..........................600K ton (unwashed)
Revenue...........................$59.4 mil @ $99/ton AUD
COP-FOB.........................$43 AUD/ton (total $25.8 mil)
Gr0ss Profit......................$33.6 milUSD
NPAT ...............................$30 mil
EPS:...................................1.7c
P/E of 10............................17c share price (with a LOM of 26 years.)
This is for a Project F only as is and it is a useful way of looking at TIG.
In addition we have:
Amaam North .......110.6 mil ton resource
Amaam...................521 mil ton resource.
If this company was owned by you or I , we'd probable proceed with Project F 600K T/P/A unwashed coal production
& sales p/a until we could finance further development out of cashflow.
This is the basis on which the company should promote itself with the added value of the long term business plan &
the quality tier one 630 mil tons of coal in the ground. We have to eat this elephant one bit at a time and that was
the reason that TIG was not financed for the full blown project a few years ago.
I'd appreciate comments please.
* I assume that the quality of coal and coking coal mix will improve thereby adequately offsetting any adverse international price or currency fluctuations.
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Incorrect.
Project F is within Amaam North.
Amaam North has 16mt of reserve from which TIG is planning to do staged production of 600ktpa then 1mtpa (need us$100m) then 2mtpa (need us$75m).
DCF not that straightforward but doable with various assumptions.
That us$100m and us$75m capex requirement will hurt the sp at some point in near future.
Cap raise coming. Cant finance all by debt. And probably wont since BV and RDIF have the financial power to tighten the control of stock.