Hi @Wuey72 - Great Question. Straight up $66.42m in new Revenue for TCL. This is one reason why i am on this stock.... i have heard no analyst write about this benefit.... or the company.... it amazes me
With the new M12 (M7 and Northern Road) it is only good news for Transurban.
Let me start by saying for context, Sydney Airport average landing and take-off slot usage at KSA is only 60%. The restriction of 80 aircraft movements per hour during its operating hours, is an arbitrary limit below the demonstrated capabilities of Sydney Airport and artificially limits the effective capacity of the airport. Not to include regional ring fencing at peak periods. To understand the Economic Impacts, check out first the OD pairs (BTS Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) Model) of Capacity Plots (Volume Capacity Plots) of the road network to Sydney Airport. The AM/PM peak is hyper 120%+. Peak is key for Annualisation Mutiplier in Financial Appraisals
With Car parking revenue c12% of KSA and an Operating Margin of 78%, plus Car having 89% mode share of total journeys to and from KSA, rail only 11% it is the dominant mode. In comparison Heathrow Airport has a 38% public transport mode share to and from the airport. Ignore EY's Economic Appraisal, given the lack of density surrounding Badgerys Creek, the usage of car could be >90% easily.
Who wins in this scenario? Transurban....
It gets a connected arterial road to the M7 which feeds into Badgerys Creek
NPV at 7% discount rate
Externality Benefit to diverted traffic of $983.1m (Travel Time Savings)
Avoided Delays $196.2m
Thats using TfNSW Parameters, which are another area of debate
36 million passengers in 2013 base case, which is c41 million by Open. Now remove the Optimism Bias from the Business Case, so reduce automatically by 40% (Flyvbverg research), then divide 1.45 people per car, mutiply by mode share of 90%, then additional revenue max of $66.42m to Transurban.
The OD pairs all show trip generation from the CBD, will be M4 to M7. From the South it is M7. From the North and Business Hub of Macquarie it is M7.
The only player is the Blue Mountains who will rat run and use Northern Road which gets 4 lanes. However in the Peak with Oran Park development in full swing and WOW with a new Supermarket, traffic congestion on the Northern Road is already a disaster.
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