Shaw & Partners put out a report in March 2022 where they...

Shaw & Partners put out a report in March 2022 where they forecast FY24 EBITDA of $215m using spot commodities prices. If anything, spot prices have marginally improved since then.

An excerpt from the report:

"With Coburn now just ~6mths away from first production, the stock is materially under-valued in a mineral sands market that continues to tighten due to lack of supply. Mineral Sands markets are relatively opaque, but we understand zircon pricing has pushed through US$2,500/t in China and bulk rutile is selling for about US$1,800t/t. These prices are materially above the assumptions in the Coburn DFS and our forecasts. We forecast EBITDA in FY23/24 of A$102m/$167m. Those numbers increase to A$128m/$215m in FY23/24 at spot commodity prices"