projected income and expenses

My calculations of projected revenue and expenses in 1st full year of 11,130 tonnes of Mt Weld Rare Earths. My rough calculations assume that the entire 11,130 tonnes of rare earths produced is sold and at current RE prices as per LYC web site.

Rare Earth's Distribution at Mt Weld. Information obtained from Lynas web site. All prices quoted are $USD.

Lanthanum Oxide 25.50%
Cerium Oxide 46.74%
Neodymium Oxide 18.50%
Praseodymium Oxide 5.32%
Samarium Oxide 2.27%

The rest of the rare earth elements of 1.035% identified at Mt Weld have prices per kilogram currently ranging from $286 to $615 .

Realistically these rare earth elements will have an immaterial impact on revenues as Lynas doesn't possess a material/commercial quantity.

Let's assume that in the first year the whole production of 11,130t is sold.

Lanthanum Oxide 1,350 tonnes @ $59,000 = $79,650,000
Cerium Oxide 2,600 tonnes @ $62,000 = $161,200,000
Neodymium/ Praseodymium Oxide 2,700 tonnes @ $88,250 (average of the 2 elements) = $238,275,000
Cerium/Lanthanum carbonate 4,000 tonnes @ $60,500 = $242,000,000
SEG and heavy rare earths 480 tonnes @ $35,000 = $16,800,000

So we get total revenue of approximately $737,925,000.

Total cash costs they say is around $7,000 per tonne. I will use a cost of $8,000 per tonne as per what some on this forum are saying. This cost does not include administration expenses, nor further exploration and development costs (there will surely be more).

So we get total cash costs of say $89,040,000 (11,130t x $8,000).

So we have a cash surplus of $648,885,000.

We will use $40,000,000 as administration expenses for the 1st year of production (based on recent quarterly cashflow report circa $10 million for admin expenses)

Net cash surplus is $608,270,000 (not including further exploration or development costs). No tax as well.

For the sake of the exercise the $USD = $AUD

Sounds good doesn't it? There's still a lot of water under the bridge. .

There is a saying "if an investment looks too good to be true, it probably is". Perhaps Lynas is the exception?

The experts on this forum can now interpret my calculations and get you even more excited.

Cheers,
;)
Nic

Disclaimer: These are my calculations based on information at hand. In no way is my view on Lynas any different to what it always has been. If anyone can see any material incorrectness in the information above submit a TOU violation.