proper valuation i see about 15bucks minimum

hey guys,

BRM say IRR of circa 30-40% on 1.2-1.9bill CAPEX? Leading to see a profit on 17-20mill tonnes of say 500-600mill i assume?? (even with dicounting cashflows at a compounded rate over life)??

lets get some thoughts on proper or thereabouts value of the stock

heres my mini take:

17mill proddy

use IO price 110AUD long term
Cost is circa 40AUD
Margin is 60AUD

17mill*60AUD = 1 bill profit

RSPT at 40%: 600mill in profit after tax

**Which invariably agrees with the IRR summary

****NOw we have 150mill shares + options; lets assume that we do a raising at $5 issuing an additional 225mill shares to raise 1.125bill

The new issued capital structure will thus be : 225mill new shares + 150mill existing issued shares + options

So 375mill or lets say 400mill will be the new issued capital post raising

*** So a profit of 600mill divided by 400mill issued capital = $1.50 in EPS

Now we have a mine life over over 25years and well be the FOURTH largest producer following BHP RIO n FMG,

So we'll garner a PE of MINIMUM 10

Give EPS of $1.50 a PE 10: you get $15

Give a PE of 12 : $18

Give a PE 15, you get 22.50

***This is all based on IO price 110 AUD long term and dilution at $5 of about 225mill shares and RSPT 40%

**** Have i made any mistakes i dont know? What BRM gonna sell? LUMP ORE or FINES??? Please some1 with good fundamental mining knowlwedge rectify any mistakes

What are other ppls thoughts on their own VALUATION as they see it??

cheers