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Django Gonzales

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22/08/20

10:01

Post #: 46735151
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Originally posted by eclipse: ↑

Interesting article in today's AFR -

AMP chief economist Shane Oliver said the pandemic had changed the property market's dynamics for investors.

"The chronic lack of supply relative to very strong demand for housing over the last 15 years, at a time of high levels of immigration, has paid off in spades for landlords, but this is not the case in today's market," Dr Oliver said.

"There's a high probability, particularly if immigration doesn't return in strong numbers and we continue to see excess stock in the rental market, that prices and rent will fall and stay weak for a very long time.
"Politically it will be difficult for the government to simply put immigration levels back to previous levels, because we have higher unemployment, which means a long period of much slower demand for housing."

BIS Oxford Economics executive director Robert Mellor agreed the golden years of property investing may be over.

"I don’t think another investor-led housing boom is around the corner and a key reason is investors will be sitting on the sidelines for a while given falling rents and, for now, falling prices," he said.

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The key take-away for me is that it will be politically difficult for the government to increase immigration when Aus unemployment is so high. Accordingly, price/rent growth will remain weak for a very long time and investors will move on to better performing markets / asset types.

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https://www.perthnow.com.au/community-news/stirling-times/perth-vacancy-rate-at-12-year-low-c-1251062
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