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Property long overdue for crash, page-151

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Sector

35,472 Posts.

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20/12/14

17:47

Post #: 14491613
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Originally posted by ozpolarbear ↑

@Sector Lead And this is why I never make predictions with timeframes. People can be correct and way ahead, of their time, and it depends on each person to judge their own holding period which they are comfortable with.

People were right about the massive potential of tech in the late 90s. Apple investors in the late 90s must have been crying after the dotcom bubble bust, but those who still held on have made a killing today. Hence, I don't mock anyone. People will say that they should have sold at that time and bought later. Well, not everyone has timing to such perfection.

Same concept applies to PDN and uranium which I mentioned

Same concept IMHO applies to gold now and the years to come will judge that.

Same concept might also apply to property if people are willing to hold on, and I'm not ruling it out. The main difference is that Apple, PDN and goldies are individual stocks and a part of a portfolio and hence falls would hurt much less. Sharp decline in property (while continuing to pay mortgage) will cause much more pain to investors and affect the macro scene. It is not a coincidence that property decline caused a global contagion effect during the GFC. At the same time, sharp rise in property also affects the macro scene significantly, which is already being reflected in a kind of stagflation.

There is a time to purchase and a time to sell. Again look at the same chart of PDN and see today's price. The investors who bought at 1 cent and did not sell at 10$ would have lost their sanity by now.

Greed and fear rule over fundamentals for much of the time. Property investors have already made a killing even if they sell now. I am not disputing that they could make a much larger killing if they hold on for 10 years more. But things cannot go up or down indefinitely. Each one has to judge for themselves whether they want to hold on for the next 10 years, and whether they have the ability to do so.

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"There is a time to purchase and a time to sell. Again look at the same chart of PDN and see today's price. The investors who bought at 1 cent and did not sell at 10$ would have lost their sanity by now."

and property will never be remotely like the above stock scenario.
land will always rise and rise with inflation + location/scarcity factor (major desirable cities). Combined with normal property leverage of x5 to avoid LMI, you have a recipe for LT wealth.

Private business for control of your future and cashflow....to fund a few stock gambles/ playmoney

Last edited by Sector: 20/12/14
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