http://www.economist.com/blogs/buttonwood/2015/09/economics "The...

http://www.economist.com/blogs/buttonwood/2015/09/economics


"The problem stems from the emerging markets and, in particular, China. No emerging market is outperforming Citigroup’s forecasts for 2015.

China’s official numbers may look fine but Mr Buiter reckons the real rate of GDP growth is currently 4% and may drop to 2.5% by the middle of next year. In Chinese terms, that is a recession.
Investment in China has been, on average, woefully inefficient—especially since 2008. Most of it continues to be allocated to infrastructure, construction and traditional industrial and extractive activities.
A reduction in the share of fixed investment in GDP by 10% is overdue... the question is whether this reduction in investment can be achieved without aggregate demand damage.