re: property scams 4 cnrs program Hi Copydog,Now that's where we...

re: property scams 4 cnrs program Hi Copydog,

Now that's where we differ. In 2023 (probably, also so in 2033), I will still be holding the properties that I have bought over the last 10 years, along with those that I intend buying (or developing) in the coming years.

And as for the world's economists, please read behind the headlines, and analyse closely what is actually being said out there. The local and global economies tick on a lot more than the DOW30.

One of the key drivers going forward will be the robustness of global Balance Sheets. Do the analysis and you will see just how many companies out there have taken the opportunity to shore up and improve the quality of their Balance Sheets, earnings capacity, and core business interests over the last 18 -24 months.

Similarly, read what BIS-Shrapnel has to say in its monthly bulletins (particularly regarding output capacity, future business investment trends, and productivity gains).

Or, read what Jeffries has to say in regards to the USA (pointing to the inventory-to-sales ratio being below 1.3 vs 1.65 in 1991 and 1.475 in 2001, continuing productivity gains accelerating, particularly amongst non-financial corporations, consumer debt, as a percentage of household disposable income being at 8%, vs 6% in 1993, 8.5% in 1987, and nearer 9% in 1980, whilst mortgage debt is below 6%, vs a low of 5.5% in 1995, 6.25% in 1991, and 4.5% in 1980, and real non-residential fixed investment, and equipment & software investment, both upticking, with the latter now positive, and the former, off its lows).

Stephen Roach of JP Morgan favours a differing view, and in some respects, his messages are important for us all to consider. But his views are nowhere near universal, just as the views of Jeffries are nowhere near being universal. The truth, therefore, is somewhere in between - hence, my continuing belief of a USA GDP outcome for 2003 of >2.5%, including surprise upside in Q1.

Of potentially greater concern is the factor X impact of SARS in Hong Kong and China, the continuing structural imbalance in Germany (and the failure of the German regime to implement the necessary market, labour law, and pension reforms), the need for state reform in France, and whatever was meant by the Russian Foreign Minister (when quoted on Lateline tonight) as suggesting a catastrophic happening between North Korea and the USA sometime in the next 24 hours.