How right you are. Property has fallen. Cash is king, and the properties you see today, you will still be able to buy tomorrow.
Trouble is - the banks still base most of their lending on the bricks and mortar approach.
Look and compare CAP A rates to, for example CAP B and CAP C, and you will soon see how important it is to have solid security in place.
Of course, some banks (and especially, the NBFIs) will likely lend on the basis of cashflow, or even as a proportion of business assets (ie: inventory, debtors, etc). But it is unlikely that you will get anything over .5-.6 for the former, or .2-.3 for the latter.
Very recently, I sought to have my properties re-valued. All have come within my privately calculated value range, so as far as I am concerned, my own property values have not fallen (ie: relative to my own personal views regarding what those same properties are worth). Perhaps, I was conservative in my own valuation outlook. Perhaps, I stopped buying when others took up the buying frenzy. Or perhaps, I have been insistent on paying down /paying out my loans as quickly as possible.
But to give you some idea of how I have invested, I first bought in 1994 (property down), backed up in late 1995 (property flat), bought again in mid-1997 (Asian crisis), again in 1998 (Asian recovery still flat), 1999 (Y2K concerns), 2001 (9-11), 2002 (major property extension - still pre-reno boom) and 2003 (interstate).
As for another little piece of information, consider also this from a USA perspective: 1. 1788 = US Constiution is ratified and the USA is formally born; 2. 1861 = US Civil War (70 + 3 years); 3. 1929 = Wall Street crashes (70 + 1 year); 4. 2001 = 9-11 (70 + 3 years).
A number of people on this, and in other forums, spend a lot of time looking at economic cycles, and other forms of cyclical predictive force. Sometimes, however, it might also pay for commentators to also look at socio-political /socio-economic cycles (perhaps even interlinking them). In that way, those prepared to do their homework may well be able to work out when, and what, the next likely turning point is for matters such as property, the markets, etc.
For my part, I intend staying conservatively geared, heavily accented towards cash, and prepared to look closely at emerging business /investment opportunities. And, I am prepared to take a long-term view to determining those positions. Hence, for me, property is (and remains) a long-term investment proposition that will continue to underpin the foundations of my future investment endeavours (whatever they may happen to be, or become).
