Being mates.I know the property valuer you speak of and sure he has some valid points to make and sure commercial property values have come down in the last 6 months.We all know this & I suspect that the market has already priced this into the current shareprices.You have some valid points but the commercial property valuer you mention does not have sharemarket experience and he can only give 'his' opinion on the property market only...He would be unable to offer guidance on the current shareprice of CER versus the current valuation of CER's property assets.I believe the shareprice remains well below the NTA even if the property assets are written down considerably.
Dodgy1,we also know a second commercial property valuer with similar education & experience who in the last week has opened a share account and has started to slowly accumulate REITs....CER is one of them....perhaps this guy has been listening to me tell him what a bargain the REITs are at the moment and being a commercial property valuer he sees the long term value and has decided to invest.(And he knows I am a mug punter and he still bought the shares so there must be some weight put on his move into the market)
Times are tough and I believe businesses that are not making as much profit as they would like will pay rent first and if necessary then seek to reduce staff numbers & cut other costs second.If you dont pay your rent you have no location to run your business.Therefore the income should still come in as per targets....I doubt the power of businesses to renegotiate rents and I doubt rents will come down that much.It costs a lot to move a business from one building to another to save a few dollars on rent.(I guess it depends on individual circumstances,just my opinion)
But the valuations are important and that being said they will come down when reported in August however many REIT's are still very cheap even with the expected asset writedowns.
I am looking at the cheap prices now and the long term gains of the future....Stay the course Dodgy1 and dont be over influenced by the doomsdayers....just listen to the mug punters like me.
P.s Can I have my metal detector back please.I can see you looking for coins down the beach from my place.I know your missus needs a new chewing tooth...but wheres my share!
CER Price at posting:
9.6¢ Sentiment: LT Buy Disclosure: Held
