property update, page-6

Interest rates are not the only internal or external shock that can effect the property market. A bigger threat to the housing market is as you said deflation. That is real and nominal prices going down, including property prices. This also is normally accompanied by economic contraction and a reduced ability to repay borrowings. The RBA's main concern is the vulnerability of prices because of the drive of investor dollars which are essentially borrowed dollars. The expectations effect of continued capital growth has continued to drive prices upward with no correlation to fundamentals. This eventually ends in tears as the expectation effect reverses itself quite often even more savagely than the upward trend.

Owner occupiers provide some platform as they are sticky but investors dont as they are flexible and will realise losses to move on and they put FA up anyway. I might remind you that for years commentators stated that the US equities market was overdoing itself and the tech boom was ludicrous with no technical support. End result ccrraasshh! Remember someone bought DVT at its highest price, that in itself was no indication it would keep going.

The timing is difficult to predict as Keynes said "the irrationality of markets can long outlast ones solvency" It could do this just as much on the oversold side as it has on the over bought side to your significant detriment. Good luck and caution before valour re property at present.