I suspect what "the market" is worried about is that super funds and instos in general have proven themselves incapable in the past of voting no to anything. It seems everybody here can now see (and I am one who has changed his view) that OZL can easily be a going concern given current commodity prices. Will those prices last? I don't know, and neither does anyone else.
But I have to agree now that the chances of the pin being pulled on OZL's financial backing are almost zero. That being the case, there are a lot of smart businesses worldwide who won't need too much ruler-running to decide there is a good deal to be had here, even at a sharp premium to the MM offer.
I repeat that initially I supported the MM bid, not because Cusack told me I should, but because I was a total bear when it came to the world economy and commodity prices. So far I am delighted to have been proven totally wrong on at least the second premise. Why that is so I still don't understand, but MM's offer should now be regarded as an opportunistic (why shoudln't it be?) and vastly undervalued offer based on potential.
I have sold out of my position because I wanted to free up some cash for a better short term proposition, but I have advised my daughters to stay in and vote NO. Their paltry holdings will make no difference of course, so we can only hope the instos finally grow some guts, accept the validity of the prevailing view of the retail investors, and have the cojones to vote accordingly.
I wish all holders well.
OZL Price at posting:
$8.70 Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Not Held
