Pros & Cons, page-5

A bit like @Oddoneout in the Myers window, FAR was caught with its pants down.
I see it as very unlikely FAR Will be increasing their stake in this field.
Even though they huffed and puffed about being buyers, that's all they seem to be able to do, where is the contingency/financial plan for this event, time will tell if there was one in place or not.

For me this is the defining moment for this management and I just don't think they are good enough to mix it with these fellas and to get this extra ~9% that they are entitled to and to fund the future appraisals along with that, as one is no good without the other. People can make excuses all they want, and will, as I have in the past but there simple has been too many let downs and underperformance that have been blamed on external factors for my liking. I hope they prove me wrong and seal this extra percentage.

WPL have moved early as 95% on here have been wishing but I guess it's that old adage of be careful what you wish for. Nobody in their wildest dreams on here would have guessed this price. They would have even guessed FARs 15% at such a low price. If 2P reserves were locked in FAR might have had some chance at gathering some money together.Highly unlikely in this OP enivornment with a 2c resource. It's a given that this is commercial though and WPL might have played this to a tee knowing that it would be very high risk for CNE to stump up the funds to buy 35% on their already big 40% and drill a few more wells to get the official DOC. This along with the ongoing costs of getting Kraken and Cather to production may just be too much for them. There hasn't been a peep out of them though and that speaks volumes. Wouldn't be at all surprised if they make a back door agreement and take the 35% down. Blackstone are after all their main shareholder and if anybody can come up with a deal and quickly it will be them.
CNE could easily go to WPL and repackage the deal for a 40-50% stake selling down part of their own at a premium but giving WPL the majority. All eyes on CNE now.

I think this pic sums up FARs reaction perfectly, given the trading halt debacle.



Even at 15%, lots of future exploration upside in the blocks, not to mention DJ and GB I think FAR can create value for shareholders over the long term once they get producing from SNE and can finally cut out the dilution which has had the SP being controlled so efficiently. Shorters kept increasing positions over the last week/s, I think at close to 60M and that's a clear sign that they knew this was coming. I think approx 70M shares traded pre and post trading halt day and big volumes yesterday so would be very interesting to see how many of those shorters have closed out knowing this news beforehand and it begs the question why didn't management suspect something or know about it.


Best outcome for FAR that I can see which is realistic is that WPL take a stake in them and jump onboard for the DJ block and get an inside view to GB- SNE lookalikes. If the block wide potential turns out in the billions and DJ exploration drill comes good then that might mean a good chance they would take FAR out a few years down the line when SNE is already producing and There is a lot more confirmation of all the prospects on FARs west African prospects. If they strike up a deal with CNE now though FAR is left in limbo.

Production is a certainty for FAR no matter what way you look at it.
Been looking that way for a while now.