prospectus, page-28

re: prospectus feaby Don't have long...

Quick comment on the availablilty of shares via the IPO.

If...and I say IF...as you suggest Salty there will be few, if any, shares availble to the public and brokers, then there are three obvious conclusions that can be drawn...

1. If funds are taking up all (or most) stock in the IPO, they will be very keen on the "profile" of JPR holders migrating over. To avoid a listing day sell-off and to help ensure the success of their positions, they are likely to try to manage what sort of people buy in via JPR...they want holders, not sellers!

To this end, once things finally get the green light, I suggest we may see register controlling activity in JPR, such as the prevention of too many temporary holders or causing the stock to be unattractive to traders (ie... occassional gap up and sell down patterns, designed to both discourage and flush borrowed money traders). We saw plenty of this with CDU and CQT.

2. With all IPO shares accounted for, clearly the only other availble avenue for obtaining shares will be via JPR...this could see some fairly interesting jostling ahead. Of course, what effects the heads will spill over into the options...lol...in spite of TheAnalysers best efforts to suggest otherwise.

From what I can see on the register...and perhaps also as evidenced from the selling (or lack there of) the current options holders are predominatley sophisticated types...clearly aware of the stupidity of selling at current levels and more than likely, looking to exercise anyway.

In fact, the top 20 option holders control around 90% of all listed options stock...lol...what does that tell you?

Assuming the IPO closes early (lol...or perhaps is already closed before it opens?)...then JPR will become a quasi derivative for both oversubscriptions and IPO free float profiling.

3. The final inference of an IPO fully taken up by funds or insto's is that their stock is likely not to be put in the market for some time. From this we can deduct that the free float in the new IPO will effectively have to come from the 80m shares coming from JPR holders.

When you do your sums relating to escrow positions and top 20 holders migrating accross from JPR...and assume a typical spread of long/medium/short term traders of the balance...we end up with a likely free float in the new IPO of just 15m or so shares and potentially much much less!

Given any smart fund/insto would keep some "uptake money" in reserve for listing day "support", the eventualy free float could very quickly become overwhelmed by sit and hold types.

If so, the New IPO could well trade beyond most peoples expectations.

Cheers!