Empty I still think its possible you lose 95% from here. To me,...

Empty I still think its possible you lose 95% from here. To me, the presentation has been blatantly "dumbed down" to avoid raising any real issues with the new investors they need to attract. The two recent analyst reports are similar. I'm not sure if those analysts simply missed the holdco issues or have buried them. Shocking either way.

Anyway, the reality is CCC's assets, excluding possibly Penumbra, are worth very little at the moment. Penumbra itself needs to be completed to have any real value. Despite having half completed it and putting $6m into escrow for a contingency, they still can't draw the bank deal!?

The company is trying to sell down CCL. Recent moves which appear to be towards issuance suggest that may not be going well. I think it would be hard to pull off, why not just wait for CCC to fall over and get very cheap? Vanmag completion remains a possibility and that would change the short term picture.

The next best scenario for Australian shareholders is CCC succeeds in attracting new holdco investors at a discount to current prices. I find it hard to believe anyone would invest but I don't underestimate these guys on the "pitch". Without shareholder approval to raise decent cash, that would only be a stop gap measure but would perhaps allow completion of Penumbra at least.

The most likely scenario is that control of CCC switches to the Mashalla vendors who are owed $8.5m and the convertible holders owned $16m plus accrued interest. Under that scenario returns to CCC holders, after probably a lengthy trading suspension, are likely to be very limited if anything.