PRU valuation analysis

Here are some analysis of current PRU valuation based on last Q data
Note: All are US dollar based since I hold PMNXF

free cash flow 31.3M
Assume same cash flow for next 3Q, annual cash flow is $125M
Current PRU market cap is $900M (based on $0.774 US closing price and 1.16B outstanding shares)
900/125 = 7.2

So the market currently give PRU 7.2 times free cash flow (p/c).

With this, it's pretty easy to come up with future PRU price if PoG keep going up, with two variable

1. PRU hedge position, 2019 Q4 average PoG is about $1490, PRU sold price is 1415, so it's a discount of $75
2. Market reset of the valuation, it gives 7.2 times based on PRU junior status, will market rerate it once its annual production is at half Million?

Here are some estimates of PRU price once it's Yaoure is online, based on the current hedge discount and p/c, and also AISC $800 (company data)

PoG $1600 $1700 $1800
PRU sold price(-$75) $1525 $1625 $1725
PRU NCF/oz (-$800) $725 $825 $925
Annual FCF (500K * NCF/oz) $362.5M $412.5M $462.5M
PRU MC based on 7.2 p/c $2.6B $2.97B $3.33B
PRU price (/1.16B) USD 2.25 $2.56 $2.87
PRU Price based on 10 p/c USD 3.12 $3.55 $3.99
(Assume re-rate to average for Mid tier)