Ok, I am going to give you the facts on PAN, anyone who wants to know how I know about all this, just read my previous few posts, that will give you an idea what I do for a living.
Anyway, back to the main topic, PAN does have hedging arrangements for 2 years until 2010, with sale contract for all its productions 70% to Chinese steel producers, and 30% to BHP. 150 Million in cash, another 80 Million in hedging and increasing, $7 million short term machinery debt. Therefore it is suppose to be worth $1.15 if the company close down tomorrow and just divided the cash, but the company is worth more than that, based on the last report it is -44% geared, therefore price of the company should be around $1.80-$2/share.
Anyway, original production cost was based on $9AUS/pound to make production viable, and currently it is selling at $10.50AUS/pound, management already have been looking at cost cutting including changing flights for many of its 324 employees, so overall operation cost will be reduced in order to "weather" the current crisis. Even without selling anything, just the cash alone with what the hedge funds owes the company, it will keep the mine operation for 4 years without any problem.
Therefore, because of all of the above mention reasons, I myself just bought 10000 shares at $0.82, still waiting for another 11000 shares to comethrough, but I think come Monday it will bounce back up to around $0.95, eitherway I am happy to hold this share as I know the value is there even if they do not produce/sell anything for the next 2 years.
Lastly, they are not looking to buy any other mines until this whole thing settled, they were looking to buy a mine out in Kambalda area late last year, but in the end decided to wait.
Regards
PAN Price at posting:
83.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held