Osake, I think you may be out of touch with the current price of...

Osake, I think you may be out of touch with the current price of a 1.2 million tonnes of kraft bleached eucalyptus pulp per year plant, or you may not be comparing "apples with apples". Are you saying GNS is being untruthful when they say the mill will be in the bottom quartile of production costs per tonne? Do you not think they have very detailed and robust financial models for the project? Most likely developed by expert third parties, as they need to be presented to JV partners and bankers and stand up to close scrutiny? I'd be interested to run my eye over your DCF model for the project.

Let's work through it:

The cost of the mill's plant is pretty much universal, give or take a bit on local labour costs (see below), regardless of where it is installed.

They are designed by the same people regardless of where they are installed. The components are also manufactured in the same global locations, regardless of where they are to be installed. In other words, the cost of componentry is relatively "fixed" regardless of country.

Given the location of the Bell Bay mill site and the deep water wharf that will be constructed as part of the project (ps: do your favoured South American mills have their own dedicated and owned ports?), I suspect the pulp mill will essentially be fabricated in South East Asia as ultra large modules (= input of a lot of cheap Asian labour) that will be delivered directly to the site via heavy lift ships. That way, the impact of the high cost of labour in Australia (c.f. South America) will be minimised.

The IRR is impacted by opex as well as capex. The Bell Bay mill will have opex savings due to the presence of its own wharf.

Osake, unless you can add substance to your sweeping unreferenced or unsubstantiated comments, I will find little incentive to try and put you on the right path.

Surely you are like all genuine HC posters: just wanting to make the best investment decision you can on the best information available. The alternative is, of course, to use HC as another anti-GNS, anti-forestry, anti any development in Tasmania forum. In other words - to spread Bob Brown's mischevious green message.