osake, good comment: all parties who have looked at the GNS project will have already had access to the financial data. GNS will have set up a data room for the purpose of wooing mill JV partners and to facilitate the sale of land and plantations.
The mill project wasn't bankable until last Thursday because of the outstanding approvals, regardless of the quality of the financials. In GNS' own material on the mill, they have placed it at the top end of the lowest quartile cost per tonne produced. When world pulp prices are low (it is a cyclic product) it's the mills in that bottom quartile that can keep producing. The mill closures happen in the top quartile. That low production cost for Bell Bay and its proximity to Asia should make the mill very successful (mentioned by osake and Georgetowntas). One hundred percent plantation wood will also now add to the profitability (more pulp per tonne of wood delivered).
Factors other than financial will have been considered by potential JV partners: a negative would be the green backlash (probably scared off Sodra but UPM has been there before and stared it down. Asian investors don't give two hoots or even understand the luxury of anyone fighting economic development).
In addition to closeness to Asian markets, another positive is the low sovereign risk. Australia would be seen as a much more preferable place to invest in fixed plant than Indonesian or other countries with endemic corruption and less stable political institutions. Apart from Chile and maybe Brazil as it devlops into a third world nation, South America would not be as attractive as Tasmania.
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