The rise in Puma Biotech price this week is staggering. I'm sure many ACL holders have wondered whether HyAct could realise similar gains.
PBYI lifted almost 300% ($5B in market cap) on the back of positive PhIII results using neratinib to treat Stage II through IIIC HER-2/erbB-2 positive breast cancer, with 33% improvement in disease-free survival after treatment with Herceptin.
Breast cancer treatment costs $16.5B pa (2010) in the US and is the #1
cancer treatment expenditure. Colorectal cancer is #2 at $14.1B pa. Together they constitute 25% of total cancer treatment expenditure. They both have the same incidence in Australia (~15,000 pa), but CRC has a
worse prognosis.
Drugs like Erbitux (cetuximab) are often criticised for the high cost of small efficacy gains. Large trials are used to prove statistically small differences. eg in 1st line mCRC treatment, FOLFIRI + Erb achieves a PFS
improvement of 1.5 mths over FOLFIRI. In 2nd line treatment, the
EPIC trial showed a 1.4 mth PFS improvement of irinotecan + Erb vs irinotecan alone. The cost of Erbitux is reportedly 3x the price per month as the cost of generic irinotecan. A
British study indicated it costs around £3000 per mth for Erbitux in mCRC treatment.
Fiercebiotech reported...
"...Analysts have offered some mixed opinions on Puma's chances in Phase III, but a success here could translate into sales of more than $1 billion..."
Also, Erbitux generates around $700M pa in sales for Bristol-Myers Squibb in the US.
Pre-generic irinotecan (Camptosar) used to bring almost $1B pa for Pfizer.
With those sort of numbers, and if the HA-I PhIII exceeds the efficacy of Erbitux in combination with FOLFIRI (which is looking more and more likely), it seems reasonable that the Puma gains are possible for ACL. Apart from the fact that we're listed in Aust!
(20min delay)