All the answers are in my postings since January 1st (when I...

  1. 249 Posts.
    All the answers are in my postings since January 1st (when I decided it's time to start the housing crash vigil).

    For confidentiality reason, I can't be specific regarding the price(s) of my properties sold, their profiles, their locations (even by suburbs - as the agents "like Pasqual" if working within the same franchise can possibly work out who I am).

    Yes, I sold some (can't say how many for the same reason) properties late 2008. I knew and I saw the housing market started to trend down and gathering pace.I sat on the cash and then came the biggest global fincancial meltdown in a century.

    Seeing the share market almost hitting 7000 coming back to earth at 3000, I pounced. Don't expect me to tell you how much capital gain I have made.

    Now 2 things happened that were unforeseen. The RBA rate caut form 7.5% to 3% almost overnight. And then the FHOG which was a knee jerk panic to insulate against falling house prices. (THIS MERELY DELAYED THE INEVITABLE BUT MADE THE BUBBLE ALL THE BIGGER AND MORE DANGEROUS).

    With all the vital ingredients to support house prices over the last year now being reversed, hence you hear the lunancy that Harold and Kumar are coming to the rescue !

    REIT/LPT shares went up a lot from March to August. They have been trending flat ever since. I wouldn't touch them as they are still heavily in debt and continue to be for at least another 3 years (depsite the many capital raisings which simply deferred the inevitable). The last thing you need is more capital raisings (dilution) assuming the market has an apetite for it.

    Also REIT (office/industrial/shopping centers) will be a sector getting a kick in the stomach from the fallout of a housing crash. Hence, their revenue stream will get badly squeezed. Refinancing with the banks will be almost impossible once the housing crash begins (when the banks will start rationing loans as well as calling in loans).

    If you bought REIT (really dirt cheap say in March) you may want to hold on to the higher quality ones (for the sake of diversification).



 
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