My $0.02,
A lot rests on the POSCO $280m clearing. Despite how little risk it may be, it's either completed, or not.
once they have $400m sitting there, things will heat up:
- SdV investors on the fence put in their offers now that money is cleared and GXY share of the project is derisked
- Any opportunistic takeovers come out of the woodworks (I'd put forth POSCO or heck, even MIN as interested parties)
- Considering the delayed Final Investment Decision for SdV, I can see them announce a $40m or $80m buyback of undisclosed amount and end date. Fund the shortfall from the extra year of mt.cattlin production - easy. And yes, it's detrimental long term, but so is share price falling too far exposing GXY to a hostile or manipulated takeover.
However, I honestly suspect things will start moving fast once POSCO Transaction completes...
Exciting times and the risk to reward ratio looks bloody brilliant right now.
Opening a new short right now seems risky. all it takes is a macro environment improvement which Trump and Xi must be starting to feel a lot of heat to deliver. Or any of the three bullets.
and on the downward side, even our friend Asb83 thinks $1.80 is a fair price, so 10% downside, 50%+ upside...not long to go and definitely oversold IMHO.
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