Potash will be chucked!!! Obviously you haven't done the numbers, as that doesn't stack up at all. The extra Potash produced will be negligible, as Lithium demand is such a flyspeck. The world demand for Potash was about 32 MTPA in 2015. The world demand for LCE was less than 0.2 MTPA. There is much more K than Li in brine as K2O:LCE, but even with (very generously for your argument) 10:1, you are producing 2 MTPA of extra Potash. Olaroz is 12.4:6.3, so roughly 2:1 K2O:LCE. It will barely register, as growth has been 2.5% per annum very roughly, and the lower margin sources of Potash will likely be adjusting for this right now.
I'm not sure that you have really analysed the market much. I think you are taking your pre set beliefs and trying to fit facts to them.
That is very interesting re a Chinese preference for Spodumene sourced Li ions - I hope that bears out for the sake of the Pilbara project, and that it is not a preference based on other factors. So I can assume Chinese Lithium is going into the gigafactory via the Panasonic partnership, because Panasonic prefers a Spod source? Well there wasn't much of a Spod source for Panasonic back when they started making those batteries, was there? Maybe they have changed specs midway - I don't know.
That is also very interesting re Greenbushes, however really we need some concrete numbers on production costs to be sure of the end results there. I wonder if there is an old study out there floating around from Greenbushes. Pilgangoora has a 3:1 strip ratio (PFS), and a grade roughly half that of Greenbushes, relying on the chart we have discussed. There is quite a cost in dealing with overburden. So it may not be such a big diff being underground, especially if they are able to longwall it. I also wonder if there are more 2.5% grade deposits out there once we start looking properly. With such a miniscule market size for LCE, I can't imagine much could have possibly been spent over the years on exploration.
cheers
PLS Price at posting:
71.0¢ Sentiment: Sell Disclosure: Held
(20min delay)