CGS 4.21% 99.0¢ cogstate ltd

Putting numbers on it, page-6

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    No, it cant happen again, well at least to the same magnitude and in the same way. CGS have significantly diversified their clinical trial book to cover indications other than AD in addition to building a book in the safety endpoint. So exposure to AD has now dropped below 40% of contracted revenue (in 2018 it was in excess of 60%) and will probably continue to decline as a percentage, particularly if they gain traction with the ERT deal. You can work out from the AR that their largest contract represents about 4% of their contracted revenue. So even if you were to see two trials pulled at the same time as happened in 2018 and even if these were the largest trials, the impact would be less than 8% of the clinical trials book. Also with the new healthcare revenue stream you further diversify/reduce the overall financial impact of such an event. As you may know the causes of those cancellations were very specific and are unlikely to be repeated.

    Also if you are worried about the share price, there is likely going to be a forced buyer out their at some point. Some one remains short all of my 200k shares, which would suggest they are short even more. They have been short for months and as of today still not covered. You suspect they are in a world of pain as this thing could shoot up on a positive FDA steer for Aducanumab next week. If you have made good money there is no shame in selling a slice of the top when the short covering kicks in. As for me I still very significant upside as I will highlight in anther post. ATB
 
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