BJT babcock & brown japan property trust

walrus,Your comment does warrant a fair and reasoned response....

  1. 3,760 Posts.
    walrus,

    Your comment does warrant a fair and reasoned response. Of course the market realises the yield at present. The market also already knows what I highlighted today and what was iterated from BJT Investor Relations.

    The fact is however, people do not just invest for yield. My personal view is a balance between yield and risk. And my risk tolerance is different to that of the next person.

    BJT has significant and ongoing Debt Maturity issues. As does just about every property trust that the market has annihilated in terms of their respective market values.

    I refer now to the following comment taken from the announcement dated 28th May 2009:

    "Mr Eric Lucas, Senior Advisor to the Board, commented “The Trust is now extremely well positioned to deal with its medium term capital management issues."

    ......Medium term capital management issues.........

    For many funds and institutional investors, putting the yield aside, as the majority have very tight mandates, medium term is just not good enough. Medium term does not equal LONG TERM. Perhaps this accounts at least in part for the perceived unrealised vlaue in BJT's share price.

    For other funds and/or institional investors perhaps is is the LVR issue. I can tell you for a fact that this is keeping institions as a whole away from everything "property" with the exception of perhaps Westifeld, Stockland, and to a degree General Property Trust.

    I posted a long while ago that I heard an analyst over 3 years ago now who was from none other than Resolution Capital, lamenting that they were VERY concerned about two things with property (and they are a specialist property only fund manager):

    1.LVR's across the board of over 40%
    2.Distribution payouts in excess of 100% of earnings

    The gentlement specifically mentioned Centro. And that was three years ago! As you know as far as being in the toilet, Centro was first cab off the rank.

    As with everything it is cost versus benefit. The "cost" is probably too high for now for the market to significantly price BJT up....for now. However, Dow Dutures is looking fantastic. Tomorrow is another day and will be an enthusiastic day on the market in general so it would seem at present.

    I hope this goes some way to putting forward a balanced argument. I am enthusiastic about BJT as I am about CER. But there certainly are negative points. I can deal with high(er) LVR's. And I think everybody knows by now that payouts of greater than 100% of earnings are ancient history.

    PS: It wasn't lost on me that (looking back) Resolution Capital were (are?) supposedly very conservative in respect of LVR's and that for them LVR's over 40% were allegedly a problem and then knowing this they bought into BJT and are now holding less than 5% (maybe nil but we don't quite know this). Talk about not taking your own advice. Perhaps according to their own set of values they should have stayed away from BJT altogether.

    PPS: Vanguard is an index manager and will therefore hold BJT as long as it stays in the ASX200. So they will not sell for now. Maple-Brown Abbott is a contrarian value style manager and I think it's safe to say you need to be somewhat of a contrarian to have a long view on BJT.....or any REIT for that matter.
 
watchlist Created with Sketch. Add BJT (ASX) to my watchlist

Currently unlisted public company.

arrow-down-2 Created with Sketch. arrow-down-2 Created with Sketch.