Putting the Spotlight on AKM in Mongolia, page-548

Peeps, Lets take a bit of the hype  out of the equation for a moment and go back to some retrospective facts about the project and where we are really at in terms of price appreciation and what will potentially drive us forward

Now bear in mind the construction of the railway link from Erdenet  to Ovoot coking coal project was initially expected to be up and running by 2017 which would have initially alleviated the need to build a sealed coal haul road but with the price of coal hitting record lows it was not feasible so coal was being imported from other countries.
Now that coal prices recovering its become doable again subject to external economic forecasts - So its still going to take 4 years approx to construct and complete this rail link  so in the meantime what are we really looking at ? 100,000 tonne mining contract at best as a trial mine contract which is scheduled to commence in spring of next year 2019 - this wont bring in the big revenues we need to see share price really take off like the 20-50 mtpa projects we have locally - albeit we will get some price appreciation from other factors but it will be slower than some here expect especially with 3 billion shares ( fully diluted ) on issue if we are purely talking EPS value based on NPAT  of production  figures of  100,000  tonne small operation - so there is a bit of risk  and i think while the above and below is being sorted out we may see some further downward pressure - 1.8c must hold this week or we could see mid 1c range revisited .

Well, its been clearly stated that the Feasibility study wont be completed until end of June quarter of 2018 so we are at least a month or two away from release !!! so dont expect it to come out this week or next !! -
Also, When these officials actually meet to discuss and sign the Northern rail deal agreement to move forward with the Northern rail corridor link - we will see price catalyst but right now it could be months before this happens as these govt officials in China are socialists and will take their time but it WILL happen IMO as it has to happen for prosperities sake ! - the CGGC Still havent confirmed their 51% stake in Northern Railway LLC to fund the 4.5 billion project and this wont happen until the governments agree to push the green light on it - so what will happen to support out current share price - read on.....

So therefore what will drive share price  ?

Share price catalysts leading up to production in 2019

There are a number of catalysts that could ignite Aspire’s share price prior to coming into production.
Management expects to have a feasibility study completed by the end of the June quarter of 2018 which will provide a significant insight into the project’s economic viability.
It will also provide investors with a reasonable indication of a likely timeline in terms of moving to production, often the most significant share price catalyst for any mining project.
Drill results and offtake agreements

Other key catalysts are the exploration program being undertaken by Aspire and the outcome of discussions with potential offtake customers in Korea and China.
A 58-hole, 10,000-metre infill and resource extension drilling campaign is targeting shallow open pit mineralisation.
The main objective is to convert a proportion of the inferred resource into the indicated category through additional sampling and for proximate and coal washability analysis.
100,000-tonne mining contract will be a test case

A mining contract has been let to a Mongolian contractor, PSST LLC, to mine 100,000 tonnes of raw coal from a mine adjacent to the Nuurstei mining licence.
This coal will be used by Aspire to test logistics and cost assumptions to be used in the Nuurstei project feasibility study.
Transport of this raw coal is along the existing road and rail facilities for delivery to export markets in China and potentially seaborne markets through Russian rail and ports.
Washable coking coal simulations

At this stage, management is assessing the potential to establish a 1 million tonnes per annum wash plant at Nuurstei, a system that will be employed by PSST LLC.
The coal seams being mined are extensions of the seams in the Nuurstei project and will also be used to provide washed coking coal simulations.
Commercial trial quantities will be used for marketing purposes through toll washing in China.
To assist with logistical operations for the trial, a weighbridge and mobile ash analyser have been acquired.
Along with the current infill drilling program and feasibility study, developments regarding the wash plant viability and associated funding could move the share price.