pva is still an easy 5 bagger from here .., page-2

from yahoo-board..

For those new to this stock a little history PSDV was a AU based company that was poorly managed and while getting licenses for technology they had no clue about what to do with it. They did a number of very poor financings and these hung over the stock until 2007.

The one thing they did right was buy ( merge ) with Control Delivery Systems which gave them access to all of the current eyecare technologys. Over a period of several years CDS's management (Ashton et al)took over PSDV. They got rid of technology and / or licensed it out to stop the finaical bleed. During this time they came under great financial duress as an old financing allowed a group to actively short the stock... to make a long story short PSDV current management did 5 things right.

1)Focus on core technology and trials by selling off the non-core deals ( neutraceticals anyone?)
2) Cut Costs (staff associated with non-core)
3) Decrease cash burn by reworking license deal and insure they could get to 2011
4) Write-downs of IP (non-recurring) to get things in line as they got rid of some of the chaff. This will help in the future as they have bitten the bullet.
5) Make it a US based business

These things took time and money and slowly PSDV got on track only to be hammered during the market pull back of last year.

In my view this is a valuation deal. What are the royalties of the drug going to be worth? Remember, they have to do little to make money as there is no real performance required. So lets ask a simple question, what if their royalty income is 15M ( very very conservative IMO). For me I think that means about 225M in value on the very low end and this could easily go to the 350-400M range with strong sales.... now don't forget the one time payments of 25M on approval (I expect it early 3rd quarter of next year - for the people who say a year after NDA please look at other recent timeframes)and 15M when their partner raises capital or 2001 whichever is first so now you have 40M cash hord and a real going concerm which is ripe for the picking..

As far as PPS I think value is the whole deal... do your own analysis and then divide by 18M and you have it... and that assumes their is no value placed on 40M in cash. Also, it does not place a value on the technology... which put in the right hands could be huge.

Here is my time line

- Early October confirmation of completion of the trial
- Early December - Release of Data.... this will be big deal if it is anything close to the PK study, which I fully expect
- February 2010 - Filing of NDA w/ expidited approval
- July 2010 - FDA Approval

I know it seems like a long time but don't forget as this continues to move along this path I have included no other deals / announcements and once that initial data is released they will show up on everyones radar....maybe a deal or two? Don't forget big boys like doing deals with companies that have just reported great results.

Ohh just a note.. the insiders have sold nothing. They are in for the ride and to me that says it all.

Hope that helps.. happy hunting.

PS. Froma technical standpoint $4-5 is going to be a hard slog. Once this clears I expect that there will be much stronger upward momentum. This is not a day traders stock IMO because with the key blocks not selling the MM's will run it up and down and take money from those who can't afford to hold and gamble a little.